Project Porfolio Analytics

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The Problem

Managers at Pharmaceutical & Petroleum companies and other high stake industries are faced with the potential risks and returns of large portfolios of uncertain projects. Many of these companies already run Monte Carlo simulations on individual projects using proven software, but because traditional representations of risk are not additive, it is difficult, if not impossible, to roll these results up to the portfolio level.

The Solution

By assigning uncertainties a range of values and a corresponding likelihood of occurring (a probability distribution), scenarios of possible future performance are captured. A probability management platform tags, catalogs, and organizes the scenarios within the distributions. It’s a bit like how a database manages historical transactions. But since we are dealing with uncertain future values how an uncertainty is impacted by changes in other uncertainties and time needs to be considered. There’s some serious coordination happening and it’s managed by the platform.

Once uncertain numbers are in the probability management platform they may be consistently used in planning spreadsheets, predictive models, interactive dashboards, or input into enterprise applications. The outputs of the models and apps may be added together and consolidated.

Value Proposition

A probability management platform is a key ingredient in curing the flaw of averages. Life sciences company may aggregate the simulated returns from products in their pipeline as if they progressed through the regulatory approval process. The same probabilities may be used in manufacturing and staffing models putting everybody on the same page.